A multilevel analysis of production capabilities of the National Forest System

This paper reports an analysis of multiresource production capabilities of the National Forest System for the purpose of national planning in the USDA Forest Service. The analysis identifies previously unrecognized limits to the productive capabilities of the National Forest System. The analysis was used by Forest Service planners to define the long-run planning problem and to develop alternative strategies for addressing that problem. The authors test a multilevel optimization approach and apply it to all forest system regions of the coterminous United States. They conclude that it is not feasible for the National Forest System to supply a constant proportion of all projected resource needs. Furthermore, the authors found that even more conservative levels of outputs require significant increases in investment and management intensity. These results have led to Forest Service program alternatives involving more reliance on other forest and rangelands and more intense multiresource management of the National Forest System. Finally, these conclusions are limited by the range of alternatives generated and outputs modeled in the National Forest planning effort.