We project the well‐to‐wheels (WTW) and tank‐to‐wheels (TTW) fossil‐energy use, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the road‐transport sector in China up to year 2050 and evaluate the effects of various potential policy options with the fuel economy and environmental impacts (FEEI) model (http://www.feeimodel.org/). The policies evaluated include (1) vehicle fuel‐consumption improvements, (2) dieselization, (3) vehicle electrification, and (4) fuel diversification, with plausible policy scenarios. Under the business‐as‐usual scenario, road transport in China would create 410–520 million metric tons (MMT) of oil‐equivalent of TTW oil demand (three to four times the current level), 28–36 billion GJ of WTW energy demand, and 1900–2300MMT of CO2‐equivalent of WTW GHG emissions by 2050. The policies (in the same order as above) are projected to reduce the TTW oil demand by 35%, 10%, 29%, and 44%, and reduce WTW GHG emissions by 34%, 5%, 12%, and 13%, respectively, by 2050. This evaluation reveals that the fuel‐consumption improvement policy could achieve greater benefit in reducing oil use, fossil‐energy use, and GHG emissions. Implications of each policy option are discussed and the uncertainties associated with the policy scenarios are analyzed.
