Nonlinear dynamical analysis and demonstration on Chinese business cycle

Nonlinear dynamical analysis and demonstration on Chinese business cycle

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Article ID: iaor20118920
Volume: 218
Issue: 5
Start Page Number: 1547
End Page Number: 1552
Publication Date: Nov 2011
Journal: Applied Mathematics and Computation
Authors: ,
Keywords: simulation
Abstract:

This paper is devoted to the study of a generalized Chinese business cycle by nonlinear dynamical method. Firstly, we establish a Chinese economic cycle model based on Goodwin model, and then discuss the point estimation and confidence interval of the model’s parameter values based on the historical data. At last, we study the bifurcation and chaotic behavior of the model. The results show that the marginal consumption has great influence on the development of Chinese economic. The Chinese economic development will run into the stable periodic wave when the marginal consumer is greater than 0.5. Furthermore, the greater the marginal consumption is, the more stable the economic development is.

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