The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa

Chinese manufacturing exports to Sub‐Saharan Africa challenge South Africa's economic influence in the region. To evaluate this, the paper develops and applies a conceptual framework that distinguishes between the intensive and extensive margins of Chinese export competition. South African exports of new and existing manufactured products to Sub‐Saharan Africa are found to have been negatively affected by Chinese competition relative to exports from other countries. Consequently, South Africa's exports to the region in 2010 were 20% lower than they would have been if they had been affected to the same degree as other countries. The crowding‐out effects are found to be strongest in medium‐ and low‐technology products. Overall, the data suggest that Chinese exports of manufactures have diminished South Africa's participation and economic influence in the region.