Constructivism scenario evolutionary analysis of zero emission regional planning: A case of Qaidam Circular Economy Pilot Area in China

The concept of zero emission contributes significantly to sustainable development. China is planning to build a circular economy pilot area with zero emissions in the Western Qaidam Basin. The paper discusses some theoretical and practical issues in the regional planning. In particular, the paper proposes a constructivism scenario evolutionary analysis based on the bargaining games among the involved stakeholders, which embodies the harmonic society criteria in regional plannings. Then, the paper applies the scenario evolutionary analysis method to the multi‐objective programming model of the Qaidam Circular Economy Pilot Area, where the objective of environmental pollution minimization can be converted into constraint conditions. Therefore, the problem is converted into the a single objective mixed‐integral programming model of the maximal profit under various constraint conditions including natural resources, environment capacity, and social and economic factors, etc. Furthermore, the model provides solutions to the optimal expected output levels of main chemical products and minimal quantity of pollution treatment facilities according to the optimal scenario evolutionary path which embodies the self‐purification emission with moderate resource exploitation. The results of the paper will have important policy implications to the regional development planning in China.