GEMFLOW: A time dependent model to assess responses to natural gas supply crises

The January 2009 gas dispute, followed by the biggest gas supply crisis ever, called for significant changes at the community level. In line with other measures (e.g. a new regulation to ensure security of gas supply), a new tool is needed that will help decision‐makers react properly in such a situation. Based on Monte‐Carlo modeling principles, this new tool is being developed to take the first step towards a comprehensive model. This model could be of great support to common European efforts in order to assess the possible outcomes of a supply disruption beforehand and minimize losses during an emergency by finding the optimal distribution of flows. Naturally, the described model cannot serve at present as hydraulic software that is currently used by the national system operators, but it is able to draw significant conclusions from the European gas system's capabilities.