Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

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Article ID: iaor20141322
Volume: 35
Issue: 6
Start Page Number: 1029
End Page Number: 1042
Publication Date: Nov 2013
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling
Authors: , ,
Keywords: finance & banking
Abstract:

This paper analyzes the ex‐ante short‐term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.

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