Article ID: | iaor20119530 |
Volume: | 39 |
Issue: | 10 |
Start Page Number: | 5970 |
End Page Number: | 5979 |
Publication Date: | Oct 2011 |
Journal: | Energy Policy |
Authors: | Jiang He, Wu Jie, Wang Jianzhou, Dong Yao, Mu Ren |
Keywords: | forecasting: applications, economics |
With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the