Potential impacts assessment of plug-in electric vehicles on the Portuguese energy market

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. In this research, scenarios for 2020 EVs penetration and charging profiles are studied integrated with different hypotheses for electricity production mix. The impacts in load profiles, spot electricity prices and emissions are obtained for the Portuguese case study. Simulations for year 2020, in a scenario of low hydro production and high prices, resulted in energy costs for EVs recharge of 20cents/kWh, with 2 million EVs charging mainly at evening peak hours. On the other hand, in an off‐peak recharge, a high hydro production and low wholesale prices' scenario, recharge costs could be reduced to 5.6cents/kWh. In these extreme cases, EV's energy prices were between 0.9€ to 3.2€ per 100km. Reductions in primary energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions of up to 3%, 14% and 10%, respectively, were verified (for a 2 million EVs' penetration and a dry year's off‐peak recharge scenario) from the transportation and electricity sectors together when compared with a BAU scenario without EVs.