Coupling climate change and forest policy: A multiple streams analysis of two German case studies

Climate change may affect forest management not only through predicted ecological impacts on forests, but also by reframing perspectives on land use issues, and thus changing forest policies. In this paper, forest policy making in the light of climate change is analyzed in two German Laender, Bavaria and North Rhine Westphalia, drawing on the Multiple Streams Framework. Empirically, document analysis and expert interviews substantiate this analysis. The formation of climate change related forest policy occurred differently in both Laender. In Bavaria, several factors triggered a successful integration of climate change adaptation measures related to forests into one program, the ‘Bavarian Climate Programme 2020’. These factors were, for instance, an early problematization of climate change by forest science, a ‘condensation’ of the problem into particular areas of high need for action, the possibility to rely on already available (in parts, implemented), well‐proven, and applicable forest policy measures, and the coordinated and entrepreneurial activities of the forest sector as a whole. In North Rhine Westphalia, the political framework conditions for a formation of climate change related forest policy were less favorable, and, hence, no broader forest policy on the issue occurred. Recent political changes, however, may allow for new prospects. We conclude that the extent to which the issue of climate change is integrated into forest policy depends on the overall framing of climate policy and the opportunities for the forest sector to substantiate the necessity of such a link. The preparedness and activities of the latter are then needed in order to utilize possible policy windows and to receive resources for forest climate policy measures. Forest science plays an important role by influencing the agenda, indicating challenges and providing scientific criteria to determine and rationalize specific measures.