Article ID: | iaor20124191 |
Volume: | 109 |
Issue: | 11 |
Start Page Number: | 16 |
End Page Number: | 24 |
Publication Date: | Jun 2012 |
Journal: | Agricultural Systems |
Authors: | Bell Lindsay W, Komarek Adam M, McDonald Cam K, Whish Jeremy P M, Robertson Michael J, MacLeod Neil D, Bellotti William D |
Keywords: | China, livestock |
The Integrated Analysis Tool (IAT), a simulation model of a household farming system, was used to combine crop and forage production simulations, a livestock production model and a household socio‐economic model to explore the impact of changes to farming systems over a 40year simulation period. Data from 90 surveyed households were used to define the structure of the three farm household types and to calibrate the IAT model specifically for Qingyang Prefecture. Additional livestock increased total household net incomes, increased net livestock incomes and reduced net crop incomes for the subsistence‐oriented and livestock‐focused farm households. For these households, the greater commitment to livestock also reduced grain self‐sufficiency due to increased frequency of purchasing grain for home‐consumption. Nevertheless, additional livestock reduced income variability for these households whilst improving total net income. Simulation models can help to identify the whole‐farm economic and biophysical impacts of smallholder farmers altering their farming systems. Incorporating long‐term climate‐induced variability in crop and livestock production enables the implications for agricultural household income and risk to be explored over a range of seasonal conditions. In this study, a simulation model is used to answer the following question: can reducing the area used for grain production by allocating more land to lucerne (