Competitive dynamics in pharmaceutical markets: A case study in the chronic cardiac disease market

A modelling project involved system dynamics simulation of chronic cardiac disease in Bulgaria, examining the dynamic behaviour of a cardiac drug molecule in the market. The system dynamics model was calibrated using market data sourced from the Bulgarian National Health Care Fund, the Bulgarian Generic Pharmaceutical Association and a market research firm. The main results of the study showed that the timing of access to market was a critical driver in reducing prices and providing wider, as well as more affordable, access for patients to medicinal therapy. Our findings indicate that healthcare authorities may obtain savings while, at the same time, they may provide conditions for more patients to be treated depending on the timing of access to market of new generic drugs.