Article ID: | iaor20133199 |
Volume: | 28 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 204 |
End Page Number: | 215 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2012 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Zhang Jie, Thomas Lyn C |
Keywords: | statistics: regression |
Estimating the recovery rate and recovery amount has become important in consumer credit due to the new Basel Accord regulation and the increase in the number of defaulters as a result of the recession. We compare linear regression and survival analysis models for modelling recovery rates and recovery amounts, in order to predict the loss given default (LGD) for unsecured consumer loans or credit cards. We also look at the advantages and disadvantages of using single and mixture distribution models for estimating these quantities.