The UK transport carbon model: An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro‐economic and energy system wide, top‐down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom‐up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply‐side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short‐term forecasting and long‐term scenario ‘models’, this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transport–energy–environment issues from socio‐economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals.