| Article ID: | iaor20131329 |
| Volume: | 112 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page Number: | 165 |
| End Page Number: | 175 |
| Publication Date: | Apr 2013 |
| Journal: | Reliability Engineering and System Safety |
| Authors: | Barros Anne, Levrat Eric, Iung Benot, Fouladirad Mitra, Le Son Khanh |
| Keywords: | stochastic processes |
Prognostic of system lifetime is a basic requirement for condition‐based maintenance in many application domains where safety, reliability, and availability are considered of first importance. This paper presents a probabilistic method for prognostic applied to the 2008 PHM Conference Challenge data. A stochastic process (Wiener process) combined with a data analysis method (Principal Component Analysis) is proposed to model the deterioration of the components and to estimate the RUL on a case study. The advantages of our probabilistic approach are pointed out and a comparison with existing results on the same data is made.