Article ID: | iaor20127778 |
Volume: | 110 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 1 |
End Page Number: | 13 |
Publication Date: | Feb 2013 |
Journal: | Reliability Engineering and System Safety |
Authors: | Zamalieva Daniya, Yilmaz Alper, Aldemir Tunc |
Keywords: | event study, hidden Markov, nuclear power, scenario analysis and planning, failure modelling |
By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24h of serial run simulation time for a 4h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for