Analysis of crash severities using nested logit model–Accounting for the underreporting of crashes

Recent studies in the area of highway safety have demonstrated the usefulness of logit models for modeling crash injury severities. Use of these models enables one to identify and quantify the effects of factors that contribute to certain levels of severity. Most often, these models are estimated assuming equal probability of the occurrence for each injury severity level in the data. However, traffic crash data are generally characterized by underreporting, especially when crashes result in lower injury severity. Thus, the sample used for an analysis is often outcome‐based, which can result in a biased estimation of model parameters. This is more of a problem when a nested logit model specification is used instead of a multinomial logit model and when true shares of the outcomes‐injury severity levels in the population are not known (which is almost always the case). This study demonstrates an application of a recently proposed weighted conditional maximum likelihood estimator in tackling the problem of underreporting of crashes when using a nested logit model for crash severity analyses.