Estimating the demand for small community air service

This research addresses the need to estimate the demand for scheduled commercial passenger service in small communities. Data were collected describing the social, economic, and geographic characteristics of 260 small communities in the contiguous 48 United States, with airports enplaning at least 2500 passengers in 1985. Small communities were defined as those with service area populations of 200,000 or less. Descriptive data included population, income, labor force characteristics, community economic base, geographic location, departures, air fare per mile, driving distance to an alternative airport, and the attractiveness of driving to an alternative airport. A methodology for selecting the most probable alternative airport when choices are present is included. Multiple regression models were specified with the data collected to estimate enplanements. The best model explained 80% of the variation in the data. The model was demonstrated by estimating the demand for air service at 52 small communities in the state of Texas. The methodology was designed to be easily applied in the field. Only readily available U.S. Census Bureau and Official Airline Guide data are required.