Optimal electricity system planning in a large hydro jurisdiction: Will British Columbia soon become a major importer of electricity?

An energy‐system model incorporating generation, transmission and integrated management of hydroelectric reservoirs in British Columbia (BC) is used to explore approaches to meeting load projections to 2040. The model includes electricity trade between BC, Alberta and the US, the influence of a carbon emissions tax, contributions from the aging gas‐fired Burrard Thermal plant and production from a proposed dam called ‘Site C’ on the Peace River in northern BC. Model results suggest: If load increases as anticipated at 1.4%/year, BC will need to import significant amounts of electricity within two decades. Operating the Burrard plant at full capacity to 2025 and bringing Site C on line in 2020 delays the need to import by only 6 years, while realizing net electricity export sales of $5.9 billion by 2040. Bringing Site C on line but imposing a tax of $30/t of CO2 emitted on gas-fired generation causes immediate closure of the Burrard plant on economic grounds and reduces net export revenue to $0.63 billion by 2040. BC has options, however, including demand side management and development of additional generation capacity. In the absence of these measures, imported power may be more significant in BC's electricity future.