JIT delivery with stochastic lead time

JIT delivery with stochastic lead time

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Article ID: iaor20128155
Volume: 64
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 97
End Page Number: 105
Publication Date: Jan 2013
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors: , , , ,
Keywords: lead time, stochastic model
Abstract:

We examine the effect of stochastic lead times on Just‐in‐Time (JIT) delivery. We find that with stochastic lead times there is a possibility of order crossover, and what order crossover does is to transform the original lead times into effective lead times, which is an AR(1) process that is an autoregressive process of Order 1. The mean of this process is the same as the mean of the original lead time, but its variance could be much smaller. The implication is that when we consider order crossover in the analysis, the cost could be less than otherwise (but never less than that with deterministic lead times). The literature on JIT with stochastic lead times has never considered order crossover, which produces the effective delivery times (EDT). Here, we demonstrate some important properties of the EDT: that it is a Cauchy sequence, and hence it converges; that it is an AR(1) process; and that it stochastically dominates the parent lead time distribution.

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