Article ID: | iaor201110891 |
Volume: | 17 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 1 |
End Page Number: | 7 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2012 |
Journal: | Transportation Research Part D |
Authors: | Westin Jonas, Kgeson Per |
Keywords: | Monte Carlo method, emissions, climate change |
This paper analyzes the climate implications of investments in high speed railway lines given uncertainty in future transport demand, technology and power production. To capture the uncertainty of estimated parameters, distributions for the annual traffic emissions reduction required to compensate for the embedded emissions from the construction of infrastructure are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. In order to balance the annualized emissions from the railway construction, traffic volumes of more than 10million annual one‐way trips are usually required. Most of the traffic diverted from other modes must come from aviation and the project cannot involve the extensive use of tunnels.