Incorporating transfer reliability into equilibrium analysis of railway passenger flow

Passenger’s transfer route choice behavior is one of the prominent research topics in the field of railway transportation. Existing traffic assignment approaches do not properly account for passenger’s expectation for transfer reliability. In this study, the transfer reliability is explicitly defined and a multi‐class user equilibrium model is established, given which passengers choose the minimal‐cost path based on their expected reliability thresholds. In particular, a path‐based traffic assignment algorithm which combines a k‐shortest path algorithm and the method of successive averages is proposed. The validity of the proposed approach is verified by an illustrative example. Using the proposed modeling approach, it is possible to determine the passenger’s collective route choice behavior based on the user equilibrium pattern. Moreover, the railway timetables can be evaluated and optimized based on the cost‐based level of service estimation.