Normal form backward induction for decision trees with coherent lower previsions

Normal form backward induction for decision trees with coherent lower previsions

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Article ID: iaor20123441
Volume: 195
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 111
End Page Number: 134
Publication Date: May 2012
Journal: Annals of Operations Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: decision: studies
Abstract:

We examine normal form solutions of decision trees under typical choice functions induced by lower previsions. For large trees, finding such solutions is hard as very many strategies must be considered. In an earlier paper, we extended backward induction to arbitrary choice functions, yielding far more efficient solutions, and we identified simple necessary and sufficient conditions for this to work. In this paper, we show that backward induction works for maximality and E‐admissibility, but not for interval dominance and Γ‐maximin. We also show that, in some situations, a computationally cheap approximation of a choice function can be used, even if the approximation violates the conditions for backward induction; for instance, interval dominance with backward induction will yield at least all maximal normal form solutions.

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