Prediction Of The Likelihood Of  Households Food Security In The Lake Victoria Region Of Kenya

Prediction Of The Likelihood Of Households Food Security In The Lake Victoria Region Of Kenya

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Article ID: iaor20118334
Volume: 7
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 331
End Page Number: 346
Publication Date: Jun 2011
Journal: Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research
Authors: , , ,
Keywords: agriculture & food, statistics: inference, statistics: regression
Abstract:

This paper considers the modeling and prediction of  households food security status using a sample of households in the  Lake Victoria region of Kenya. A priori expected food security  factors and their measurements are given. A binary logistic regression model  derived was fitted to thirteen priori expected factors. Analysis of the marginal effects revealed that effecting the use of the seven significant determinants: farmland size, per capita aggregate production, household size, gender of household head, use of fertilizer, use of pesticide/herbicide and education of household head,  increase the likelihood of a household being food secure. Finally, interpretations of predicted conditional probabilities, following improvement of significant determinants,  are given.

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