Article ID: | iaor20118334 |
Volume: | 7 |
Issue: | 2 |
Start Page Number: | 331 |
End Page Number: | 346 |
Publication Date: | Jun 2011 |
Journal: | Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research |
Authors: | Mwita Peter, Otieno Romanus, Masanja Verdiana, Muyanja Charles |
Keywords: | agriculture & food, statistics: inference, statistics: regression |
This paper considers the modeling and prediction of households food security status using a sample of households in the Lake Victoria region of Kenya. A priori expected food security factors and their measurements are given. A binary logistic regression model derived was fitted to thirteen priori expected factors. Analysis of the marginal effects revealed that effecting the use of the seven significant determinants: farmland size, per capita aggregate production, household size, gender of household head, use of fertilizer, use of pesticide/herbicide and education of household head, increase the likelihood of a household being food secure. Finally, interpretations of predicted conditional probabilities, following improvement of significant determinants, are given.