Article ID: | iaor201112536 |
Volume: | 30 |
Issue: | 8 |
Start Page Number: | 736 |
End Page Number: | 752 |
Publication Date: | Dec 2011 |
Journal: | Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Kapetanios George, Caggiano Giovanni, Labhard Vincent |
Keywords: | forecasting: applications, statistics: regression |
Factor-based forecasting has been at the forefront of developments in the macroeconometric forecasting literature in the recent past. Despite the flurry of activity in the area, a number of specification issues such as the choice of the number of factors in the forecasting regression, the benefits of combining factor-based forecasts and the choice of the dataset from which to extract the factors remain partly unaddressed. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical investigation of these issues using data for the euro area, the six largest euro area countries, and the UK.