Forecasting the business cycle using survey data

Forecasting the business cycle using survey data

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Article ID: iaor19921637
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 6
Start Page Number: 453
End Page Number: 461
Publication Date: Jan 1990
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors:
Abstract:

Regular business survey data are published as percentages of firms predicting higher, equal or lower values of some reference variable. Time series of such percentages do not fit production data too well. Univariate models often produce forecasts which are just as accurate. Still, surveys contain anticipative judgement which, when combined with univariate modeling and proper filtering, may produce a good indicator for business cycle turning points. The way survey data are transformed so as to fit statistics on production seems not to be of much importance. A case study of the Finnish forest industry is offered as an example.

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