Robust backward population projections made possible

Robust backward population projections made possible

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Article ID: iaor20118661
Volume: 27
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 1241
End Page Number: 1247
Publication Date: Oct 2011
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors:
Keywords: population
Abstract:

Based on formal results for population dynamics under varying fertility and mortality levels, this paper presents a new approach to backward population projection. Unlike other methods in the literature, the method presented here is robust and accurate in both the short and long run. The method and the theory behind it contribute to the knowledge about dynamic populations and may find applications in population modeling and reconstruction.

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