Article ID: | iaor20118661 |
Volume: | 27 |
Issue: | 4 |
Start Page Number: | 1241 |
End Page Number: | 1247 |
Publication Date: | Oct 2011 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Ediev Dalkhat M |
Keywords: | population |
Based on formal results for population dynamics under varying fertility and mortality levels, this paper presents a new approach to backward population projection. Unlike other methods in the literature, the method presented here is robust and accurate in both the short and long run. The method and the theory behind it contribute to the knowledge about dynamic populations and may find applications in population modeling and reconstruction.