Article ID: | iaor20118660 |
Volume: | 27 |
Issue: | 4 |
Start Page Number: | 1108 |
End Page Number: | 1115 |
Publication Date: | Oct 2011 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Ltkepohl Helmut, Brdsen Gunnar |
Keywords: | performance evaluation |
Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest, even though a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case, converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naïve forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential transformation is not theoretically optimal. A simple expression for the optimal forecast under normality assumptions is derived. However, despite its theoretical advantages, the optimal forecast is shown to be inferior to the naïve forecast if specification and estimation uncertainty are taken into account. Hence, in practice, using the exponential of the log forecast is preferable to using the optimal forecast.