Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high‐frequency data: Is the euro different?

Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high‐frequency data: Is the euro different?

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Article ID: iaor20118657
Volume: 27
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 1089
End Page Number: 1107
Publication Date: Oct 2011
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications, statistics: inference
Abstract:

We assess the performances of alternative procedures for forecasting the daily volatility of the euro’s bilateral exchange rates using 15 min data. We use realized volatility and traditional time series volatility models. Our results indicate that using high‐frequency data and considering their long memory dimension enhances the performance of volatility forecasts significantly. We find that the intraday FIGARCH model and the ARFIMA model outperform other traditional models for all exchange rate series.

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