Forecasting competitors’ actions. An evaluation of alternative ways of analyzing business competition

The task of forecasting business competitors’ actions has not received much attention in the forecasting literature. Thus there is little guidance to practitioners as to which forecasting methods to use. At a more fundamental level there is confusion in the literature about the relevance of the various theories for analyzing business competition. This paper appraises alternative theories and methods that are found in the literature of economics, psychology, and business administration. Strategic management techniques and behavioral decision theories that combine elements of economics with psychology are likely to be more useful in competitor analysis. The associated forecasting techniques using expert opinion, intentions surveys, role playing and expert systems are recommended.