| Article ID: | iaor19921585 |
| Country: | Netherlands |
| Volume: | 5 |
| Start Page Number: | 179 |
| End Page Number: | 185 |
| Publication Date: | Feb 1989 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Willemain Thomas R. |
| Keywords: | statistics: empirical |
Twelve subjects made judgmental adjustments to graphs of statistical forecasts. The data were artificial ARIMA series with known optimal forecasts. When statistical forecasts were nearly optimal, adjustment had little effect. When the forecasts were less accurate, adjustment improved accuracy. These results suggest the value of graphical review and adjustment of statistical forecasts.