Railroad transportation of dangerous goods: A conditional exposure approach to minimize transport risk

Hazardous materials (hazmat) are potentially harmful to people and environment due to their toxic ingredients. Although a significant portion of hazmat is transported via railroads, prevailing studies on dangerous goods focus on highway shipments. In this work, we develop a risk assessment methodology that takes into consideration the differentiating features of trains and the characteristics of train accident. The proposed approach incorporates train‐length, train‐decile position of hazmat railcar, the sequence of events leading to hazmat release, and the associated consequence from ruptured railcars. Freight‐train derailment reports of the Federal Railroad Administration were analyzed to both get a better understanding of the problem, and also to propose a more precise assessment methodology. The assessment methodology, which includes Bayes Theorem and Logical Diagrams, were used to study a US based case example, which was further analyzed to gain relevant managerial insights.