Platoon‐based traffic flow model for estimating breakdown probability at single‐lane expressway bottlenecks

This study investigates the mechanism of traffic breakdown and establishes a traffic flow model that precisely simulates the stochastic and dynamic processes of traffic flow at a bottleneck. The proposed model contains two models of stochastic processes associated with traffic flow dynamics: a model of platoon formation behind a bottleneck and a model of speed transitions within a platoon. After these proposed models are validated, they are applied to a simple one‐way, one‐lane expressway section containing a bottleneck, and the stochastic nature of traffic breakdown is demonstrated through theoretical exercises.