Sudden changes in variance and time varying hedge ratios

Sudden changes in variance and time varying hedge ratios

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Article ID: iaor20118230
Volume: 215
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 393
End Page Number: 403
Publication Date: Dec 2011
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: Spain, stock market, hedging, GARCH
Abstract:

This paper analyzes the influence of sudden changes in the unconditional volatility on the estimation and forecast of volatility and its impact on futures hedging strategies. We employ several multivariate GARCH models to estimate the optimal hedge ratios for the Spanish stock market including in each one some well‐known patterns that may affect volatility forecasts (asymmetry and sudden changes). The main empirical results show that more complex models including sudden changes in volatility outperform the simpler models in hedging effectiveness both with in‐sample and out‐of‐sample analysis. However, the evidence is stronger when the loss distribution tail is used as a measure for the effectiveness (Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES)) suggesting that traditional measures based on the variance of the hedged portfolio should be used with caution.

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