Article ID: | iaor19921351 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 5 |
Start Page Number: | 417 |
End Page Number: | 426 |
Publication Date: | Dec 1989 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Guerard John B., Clemen Robert T. |
Keywords: | textbooks: general |
Recent studies of macroeconomic forecasts have focused primarily on the relative performance of individual forecasts and combinations thereof. The authors suggest that these forecasts be evaluated in terms of the incremental information that they provide relative to a simple extrapolation forecast. Using a Bayesian approach, the authors measure the incremental information contained in econometric forecasts of U.S. GNP relative to a random-walk-with-drift time series forecast. The results indicate that (1)substantial incremental gains can be obtained from econometric GNP forecasts for the current quarter, but that these gains decrease rapidly as the forecast horizon increases, and (2)after one econometric forecast has been consulted, subsequent such forecasts add little information.