An oil outflow model for tanker collisions and groundings

In this paper we have developed an oil outflow model for collision and grounding accidents of tankers. The collision model explicitly links input variables such as tanker hull design (single or double), displacement and speed, striking vessel displacement and speed, and the interaction angle of both vessels to output variables: longitudinal and transversal damage extents of the tanker. Overlaying these damage extents on the tank vessel’s design yields an oil outflow volume totaling the capacity of the damaged tank compartments. A similar model is developed for grounding accidents. A total of 80,000 simulation accident scenarios described in the National Research Council SR259 report published in 2001 served as the joint data set of input and output variables used in this ‘linking’ process. The oil outflow model herein was designed keeping computational efficiency in mind to allow for its integration with a maritime transportation system (MTS) simulation. We shall demonstrate the use of the oil outflow model as a final analysis layer to evaluate double‐hull effectiveness in a geographic context of an MTS simulation model developed for the oil transportation routes traversing the environmentally sensitive San Juan Islands area in Washington State.