| Article ID: | iaor19921246 |
| Country: | Netherlands |
| Volume: | 5 |
| Start Page Number: | 99 |
| End Page Number: | 110 |
| Publication Date: | Jan 1989 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Lefranois Pierre |
| Keywords: | forecasting: applications, simulation: applications |
The paper presents an heuristic to estimate the distribution of future values in a forecasting process. The heuristic is based on the split-normal density used as a proxy for the expected distribution of future values. The approach is novel in that it allows for asymmetric non-stationary distributions of future values. Results of Monte-Carlo tests in a context of inventory control indicate that the heuristic may significantly reduce costs.