Beyond accuracy

Long-range, political-economic forecasting cannot be appraised in terms of empirically demonstrated accuracy. Yet as ‘scientific research programs’, futures studies can be assessed in terms of methodological dependability and progressive problem shifts. The methodology of developmental constructs meets these criteria; policy debates and international conflicts can be viewed as competitions among developmental sequences, which progess best, if cast as provisional rather than as general laws. Developmental constructs can incorporate historical lessons without the rigidity of single, dominant analogies. The approach applies with equal robustness to long-term economic growth futures studies and international conflict and mediation.