An active modeling system for econometric analysis

This paper examines the feasibility of developing an ‘artificially intelligent econometrician’ as an active decision support system (ADSS) in the sense articulated by Manheim. The authors review the system components of an ADSS and then relate them to a modeling system for econometric analysis that they have implemented. The authors present the query language of the PERM (Progressive EconometRic Modeling) system and offer an extension to the language based on process-oriented constructs for model integration. The query language and its extension correspond to the ADSS’s user-directed and computer-directed process managers, respective. Schemas representing statistical strategies are stored as processes in the extended language and serve as the econometric knowledge base. The authors suggest an approach to building an inference processor for this system based on experiments to record user query protocols and relate them to the schemas in the knowledge base. The connection between user processes and schemas is implemented by demon constructs in the extended language. Finally, the authors examine the extent to which the present proposed system constitutes an ADSS.