Use of a dynamic programming model to estimate the value of clinical mastitis treatment and prevention options utilized by dairy producers

This study discusses and demonstrates the construction and application of a specially structured dynamic programming replacement and insemination optimization and simulation model of the dairy cow that includes detailed representation of repeated episodes of clinical mastitis (CM). The application determined optimal individual cow decisions, which were then compared with mastitis culling rules of thumb to determine the deviation of these rules from optimality. Calculation of break‐even values of applying a preventive measure to reduce CM incidence or severity in the form of two fictitious mastitis vaccines were also carried out. Model input parameters were based on data from five large dairy herds in New York State (about 16,000 lactations), but these parameters can be easily changed for other types of dairy operations. To demonstrate the usefulness of this model to assist individual cow CM treatment options, the cost of the decision to cull a third lactation cow, six months after calving, with the first case of CM, was negative $3 USD for a low milk producing open or pregnant cow (i.e. cull), and positive $850 USD for a high milk producing and pregnant cow (i.e. treat even with extremely high treatment cost). Compared with the model recommended optimal policy, a rule of thumb decision to routinely treat all cows with a first case of CM resulted in an additional cost of $2 per cow per year, a very low deviation from optimality and suggests all cows should be given a second chance. A policy of replacing all CM cows after their second CM case after treatment of the first CM incident resulted in an additional cost of $27 per cow per year. If the decision was to replace all cows only after their third CM case this cost estimate was $8. The cost-benefit of applying two fictitious vaccinations showed that a vaccination reducing the milk loss caused by Gram-negative CM by 50% had a break-even cost of $14 per cow per year. A vaccination that would result in additional reduction of the risk of CM by 50% had a break‐even cost of $37 per cow per year.