From college to the pros: predicting the NBA amateur player draft

The reverse‐order amateur draft is an institution common to each of the major North American professional team sports. The draft is designed to give the weaker teams access to the future stars of the sport. The focus of our inquiry is how information on amateur player performance is employed by decision‐makers in one sport, the National Basketball Association. Our analysis will suggest that future NBA players who score in college will see their draft position improved. This focus, though, appears to impair the ability of poor teams to improve.