Geothermal power production in future electricity markets–A scenario analysis for Germany

Small scale geothermal plants could provide base load for RES based power systems. New technologies allow its use even in geologically inactive regions like Germany. Key factors for growth are political support and power market framework conditions. Main investment barriers are comparatively high investment costs and discovery risks. Scale of use depends on technological evolution and energy system structure. Development and diffusion of new renewable energy technologies play a central role in mitigating climate change. In this context, small‐scale deep geothermal power has seen growing interest in recent years as an environmentally friendly, non‐intermittent energy source with large technical potential. Following the first successful demonstration projects, the German geothermal industry is currently experiencing an internationally unparalleled growth. In this study we explore the factors driving this development, and the role geothermal power production could play in the future of the German electricity market. For this, we apply the scenario technique, based on literature analysis and interviews with companies operating actively in the field. Our findings highlight the importance of political support and framework conditions in the electricity market, with the best prospects in a decentralised energy system based on renewable energy sources, where high investment costs and the risk of discovery failure are balanced by the benefits of low‐carbon base load power.