Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance, Risks and Repercussions for Africa

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Article ID: iaor20107307
Volume: 26
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 151
End Page Number: 170
Publication Date: Mar 2008
Journal: Development Policy Review
Authors: ,
Keywords: Africa, input-output analysis
Abstract:

Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided.

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