A Geometric Proof of Calibration

A Geometric Proof of Calibration

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Article ID: iaor20108763
Volume: 35
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 721
End Page Number: 727
Publication Date: Nov 2010
Journal: Mathematics of Operations Research
Authors: ,
Abstract:

We provide yet another proof of the existence of calibrated forecasters; it has two merits. First, it is valid for an arbitrary finite number of outcomes. Second, it is short and simple and it follows from a direct application of Blackwell's approachability theorem to a carefully chosen vector-valued payoff function and convex target set. Our proof captures the essence of existing proofs based on approachability (e.g., the proof by Foster (1999) in the case of binary outcomes) and highlights the intrinsic connection between approachability and calibration.

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