Article ID: | iaor20108414 |
Volume: | 27 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 41 |
End Page Number: | 49 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2011 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Yaniv Ilan |
Keywords: | Delphi, group decision making |
Do groups make better judgments and decisions than individuals? We tested the hypothesis that the advantage of groups over individuals in decision-making depends on the group composition. Our study used susceptibility to the framing effect as a measure of decision quality. Individuals were assigned to one of two perspectives on a choice problem. The individuals were asked to indicate their individual preference between a risky option and a risk-free option. Next, they were asked to consider the same (or a related) choice problem as a group. Homogeneous groups were composed of similarly framed individuals, while the heterogeneous ones were composed of differently framed individuals. In comparison to individual preferences, the homogeneous groups’ preferences were polarized, and thus the framing effect was amplified; in contrast, the heterogeneous groups’ preferences converged, and thus the framing effect was reduced to zero. The findings are discussed with regard to group polarization, the effects of heterogeneity on group performance, and the Delphi forecasting method.