Article ID: | iaor20107474 |
Volume: | 25 |
Issue: | 8 |
Start Page Number: | 613 |
End Page Number: | 624 |
Publication Date: | Nov 2010 |
Journal: | Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering |
Authors: | Ghosh Bidisha, Basu Biswajit, OMahony Margaret |
Keywords: | Bayesian modelling, wavelets |
The existing well-known short-term traffic forecasting algorithms require large traffic flow data sets, including information on current traffic scenarios to predict the future traffic conditions. This article proposes a random process traffic volume model that enables estimation and prediction of traffic volume at sites where such large and continuous data sets of traffic condition related information are unavailable. The proposed model is based on a combination of wavelet analysis (WA) and Bayesian hierarchical methodology (BHM). The average daily ‘trend’ of urban traffic flow observations can be reliably modeled using discrete WA. The remaining fluctuating parts of the traffic volume observations are modeled using BHM. This BHM modeling considers that the variance of the urban traffic flow observations from an intersection vary with the time-of-the-day. A case study has been performed at two busy junctions at the city-centre of Dublin to validate the effectiveness of the strategy.