Automated selection of the number of replications for a discrete-event simulation

Automated selection of the number of replications for a discrete-event simulation

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Article ID: iaor20106913
Volume: 61
Issue: 11
Start Page Number: 1632
End Page Number: 1644
Publication Date: Nov 2010
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors: , ,
Abstract:

Selecting an appropriate number of replications to run with a simulation model is important in assuring that the desired accuracy and precision of the results are attained with minimal effort. If too few are selected then accuracy and precision are lost; if too many are selected then valuable time is wasted. Given that simulation is often used by non-specialists, it seems important to provide guidance on the number of replications required with a model. In this paper an algorithm for automatically selecting the number of replications is described. Test results show the algorithm to be effective in obtaining coverage of the expected mean at a given level of precision and in reducing the bias in the estimate of the mean of the simulation output. The algorithm is consistent in selecting the expected number of replications required for a model output.

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