Demand forecasting for a jewelry packaging company: Pattern identification and assessment

Approximately seventy-five percent of all consumer purchases come in a package. However, virtually no data exists regarding wrapped metal boxes for the jewelry industry as a whole. This paper, using data from a compnay level instead of the whole jewelry packaging industry, is to examine the existence of any pattern in demand and develop a forecasting model for wrapped metal boxes. Seasonal factors, trend component, and other considerations are explored within the confines of univariate time series models. The identified pattern in demand is stategically important for both sales forecasting and manufacturing materials management. While the particular process developed in this study is based on the data from one package company, it could be readily adopted for other box manufacturers.