| Article ID: | iaor20105415 |
| Volume: | 29 |
| Issue: | 5 |
| Start Page Number: | 476 |
| End Page Number: | 485 |
| Publication Date: | Aug 2010 |
| Journal: | Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Solferino Nazaria, Waldmann Robert |
The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters.