A dynamic programming model for optimal distribution of police patrol efforts in Nigeria: a case study of Lagos State

This study employs a dynamic programming model built around five sensitive parameters that may influence crime preventive patrol effort to maximise the weighted probability of a patrol initiated intercept of random crimes in Lagos State of Nigeria. It compares the output of the dynamic programming model with those of the steepest ascent algorithm (which is another operations research tool) and the traditional methods of distributing police patrol efforts in Lagos State. Results reveal that the dynamic programming model produces two slightly different solutions that are optimally better than the steepest ascent algorithmic and traditional methods of allocation. Due to these findings, this study recommends that in order to bring about an effective reduction of crime waves in Nigeria, via police patrol efforts; the traditional method of allocation which is frequently based on socially unacceptable behaviours, like god fatherism, nepotism and sycophancy that characterise the socio-cultural landscape in Nigeria, must be replaced with operations research-based methods, such as dynamic programming, which is the pivot of this study.